New Predictive Information from the Federal Government For Anticipated Peaks and Needs for ICU Beds and Ventilators by State

March 30, 2020


Disclaimer: Viewers of this material should review the information contained within it with appropriate medical and legal counsel and make their own determinations as to relevance to their particular practice setting and compliance with state and federal laws and regulations. The APSF has used its best efforts to provide accurate information. However, this material is provided only for informational purposes and does not constitute medical or legal advice. This response also should not be construed as representing APSF endorsement or policy (unless otherwise stated), making clinical recommendations, or substituting for the judgment of a physician and consultation with independent legal counsel.

The federal government has released predictive data by state for the anticipated need of ICU beds and ventilators during this current COVID pandemic. The predictions also include the potential date of peak need for each state. This information is now available at

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All state societies in the anesthesia professions are encouraged to review these data and use them to assist in planning for appropriate preparation of anesthesia machine/ventilator use in patients who have respiratory failure. The data should also trigger discussions on where to most appropriately place ventilators and develop additional ICU beds within states.

Worth noting: As in all predictive models, this information is only as good as the data used to create it. Testing for COVID infection is heterogeneous throughout the country. Although the model is using COVID infection and death rates, there may be many deaths not officially attributed to COVID (not tested, not hospitalized). This may cause inaccuracies. For example, data from Italy using the all cause death rate for February compared to years past suggests that the deaths from COVID were vastly underestimated. The model also assumes the implementation of social distancing in all states.

Nonetheless, the predictive data provide a basis for discussions within states on how to prepare for the influx of COVID-infected patients who will require ventilation for respiratory failure.