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The federal government has released predictive data by state for the anticipated need of ICU beds and ventilators during this current COVID pandemic. The predictions also include the potential date of peak need for each state. This information is now available at covid19.healthdata.org.
All state societies in the anesthesia professions are encouraged to review these data and use them to assist in planning for appropriate preparation of anesthesia machine/ventilator use in patients who have respiratory failure. The data should also trigger discussions on where to most appropriately place ventilators and develop additional ICU beds within states.
Worth noting: As in all predictive models, this information is only as good as the data used to create it. Testing for COVID infection is heterogeneous throughout the country. Although the model is using COVID infection and death rates, there may be many deaths not officially attributed to COVID (not tested, not hospitalized). This may cause inaccuracies. For example, data from Italy using the all cause death rate for February compared to years past suggests that the deaths from COVID were vastly underestimated. The model also assumes the implementation of social distancing in all states.
Nonetheless, the predictive data provide a basis for discussions within states on how to prepare for the influx of COVID-infected patients who will require ventilation for respiratory failure.